Western Balkans Regular Economic Report: Spring 2020

A semi-annual report on recent economic developments and economic policies in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia), this edition looks at the economic performance and outlook for the Western Balkans region and specific factors that affect growth prospects.

The Regular Economic Report No. 17 is a collection of notes on the economic and social impact of COVID-19 on the Western Balkans region that will be published in two parts. This first part includes three Notes: “Setting the Stage: Reviewing the state and vulnerabilities of the Western Balkan еconomies as they face COVID-19;” “Outlook: Hard Times Require Good Economics;”and "Western Balkan Country Notes." The second part discusses the impact of COVID-19 on specific economic areas, social sectors, and poverty and income distribution in the region. The second part will be published here in May.

Setting the Stage

The Western Balkans region is projected to enter a recession in 2020, whose magnitude depends on the duration of the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe

In the baseline scenario, the recession would be considerable, with growth in the region contracting by about 3 percent but with substantial differences by country based on economic structure and pre-crisis vulnerabilities. Assuming the COVID-19 outbreak is largely contained by mid-2020 - allowing economic activity to resume as measures to contain the virus are lifted and financial market and supply-chain disruptions ease - real GDP growth for the year would fall by 3.1 percent.

In the downside scenario, growth in the Western Balkans would fall by about 5.7 percent in 2020, causing a more severe recession than the global financial crisis. In the downside scenario, the outbreak lingers so that containment measures cannot be lifted until late in August, with economic activity beginning to recover only in the fourth quarter.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/publication/western-balkans-regular-economic-report

Извор: Светска Банка – 14.05.2020